Will reducing emissions be enough?

GEOPHYSICS

Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide

Pierre Friedlingstein *, , and Susan Solomon

*Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique-Saclay, L'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France; and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305

Contributed by Susan Solomon, June 7, 2005

Full Text http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/102/31/10832

We developed a highly simplified approach to estimate the contributions of the past and present human generations to the increase of atmospheric CO2 and associated global average temperature increases. For each human generation of adopted 25-year length, we use simplified emission test cases to estimate the committed warming passed to successive children, grandchildren, and later generations. We estimate that the last and the current generation contributed approximately two thirds of the present-day CO2-induced warming. Because of the long time scale required for removal of CO2 from the atmosphere as well as the time delays characteristic of physical responses of the climate system, global mean temperatures are expected to increase by several tenths of a degree for at least the next 20 years even if CO2 emissions were immediately cut to zero; that is, there is a commitment to additional CO2-induced warming even in the absence of emissions. If the rate of increase of CO2 emissions were to continue up to 2025 and then were cut to zero, a temperature increase of 1.3°C compared to preindustrial conditions would still occur in 2100, whereas a constant-CO2-emissions scenario after 2025 would more than double the 2100 warming. These calculations illustrate the manner in which each generation inherits substantial climate change caused by CO2 emissions that occurred previously, particularly those of their parents, and shows that current CO2 emissions will contribute significantly to the climate change of future generations.

Extract from paper showing temperature trends with normal or zero emissions.

Fig. 4. As described for Fig. 3 for CO2-induced warming commitments linked
to each human generation since 1900. Only CO2 has been considered. The
range between the dotted and dashed lines for each color illustrates the large
range in realized temperatures caused by the effect of CO2 emitted by each
generation in the past along with the present (2000–2025) generation. Note,
for example, the very large differences in estimated warming in 2100 depending
on whether constant emissions are continued through the 21st century
compared to zero emissions after 2025 (black lines).


Page Information

  • 2 years ago [history]
  • View page source
  • You're not logged in
  • No tags yet learn more

Wiki Information
Update to PBwiki 2.0

An entirely new PBwiki experience, including folders and easier editing.

Convert Now for Free | Learn more